Leading Economic Indicators Bear Out January’s Mercury-Venus Conjunction

June 23, 2010 at 6:13 pm

by Milky Way Maid

Recent economic reports bear out the negative forecast for the economy as given in my first weekly horoscope of the year. News items in Bloomberg News and by other economic forecasters are jumping all over the latest numbers regarding Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for spring of this year. They have been trending downward (year over year)for two straight months.

Bloomberg: "Leading Economic Index (LEI) Peaked in March

The LEI is published monthly. Historically its year-over-year percentage change has been one of the best recession forecasting tools available. Whenever it fell below the zero line for three months in a row, a recession followed. And it has never missed calling a recession since the 1960s.

The chart below shows you the history of this indicator. It looks like the LEI saw the high for the current business cycle in March 2010 when the year-over-year change shot up to 11.6 percent. In April it declined to 10.4 percent. And then last Thursday the May figure was released — a drop to 9.2 percent.

What did I write in the horoscope general notes for the first week of January? I’ll tell you what I wrote: "Mercury retrograde is conjunct Venus in Capricorn at 5:39 am Tuesday. This is a very important conjunction to the market cycle, useful for fingering turns in the stock market. Investors would do well to note what happens this week, as it will likely foretell the start of either a strong bull or bear trend. Capricorn takes a very hard-headed approach to business matters, whether personal or corporate; he may decide to cut his losses or take profits."

With your permission, I am going to take that as a hit. Even though I thought the effect would be primarily on the stock market rather than the economic indicators, etc., the stock market is sure to follow. And the market was rather soft that month as well as this spring. The only problem is that the turns are not exact since indicators often lag public confidence in the economy, and vice versa. It can be very dangerous to time the turns even when the basic astrology is correct.

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